Schroders Capital forecasts continuation market will exceed $330 billion by 2035
Schroders Capital’s latest research reveals the continuation investment market reached record levels in 2025 and is set to more than triple by 2035. Driven by structural shifts rather than short-term exit pressures, GP-led secondaries are reshaping the future of private equity ownership and value creation.
- Schroders Capital’s new study sets out that the global continuation investment market continued to grow strongly in 2025 – hitting record levels – and remains on track to more than triple by 2035.
- It estimates cyclical tailwinds accounted for only 9% of 2025 investment volume, meaning the market is being increasingly propelled by long-term structural drivers – marking a profound shift set to reshape the architecture of the buyout market, not just a stopgap in a slow exit environment.
- Continuation investments are partially replacing sponsor-to-sponsor secondary buyouts – which have accounted for more than a third of private equity exit volume over the past two decades.
- Sponsor-to-sponsor deals have traditionally been a primary source of deal flow, particularly at the larger end of the market; Schroders Capital predicts around 5% of all mid to large-cap buyout deal flow could be displaced over the coming 10 years.
Schroders Capital today announces the publication of its latest annual continuation investments research. Analysis from Schroders Capital forecasts that the global continuation investment market, also known as GP-led secondaries, will continue to accelerate over the next decade, underpinned by structural factors.
The private equity team’s model forecasts sustained growth in continuation markets over the medium to long term. The base case forecasts investment volumes in excess of $330 billion by 2035. This forecast reflects structural market dynamics that continue to extend private equity ownership beyond initial holding periods under the same ownership, alongside investor demand for investments with reduced risk, more predictable returns, faster liquidity and lower fees. In other scenarios, the analysis suggests that the market could even see a larger expansion of up to five times current levels.
The continuation investment market gained further momentum last year. Total deal value rose from a revised $76 billion in 2024 to a new record of $109 billion in 2025.
Continuation investments are a growing phenomenon in the private equity market – and they represent a significant structural shift in the dynamics of how the industry creates and realises value. While there have been cyclical factors that have accelerated transaction volumes in recent years, Schroders Capital’s analysis highlights that this merely accentuates the steady and consistent growth seen in this segment over the past decade.
Nils Rode, Chief Investment Officer, Schroders Capital, said:
“Over the past year, the trends we identified have not only persisted, but accelerated, with continuation investments further embedding themselves as a core feature of the private equity landscape rather than a short-term response to challenging exit market conditions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that continuation investments are neither cyclical nor temporary in nature. Underlying structural forces continue to underpin the market, with projected growth expectations revised upwards.
“What’s most disruptive is not that private equity assets can stay private for longer – that has happened for decades through sponsor-to-sponsor deals. It’s that continuation transactions enable the original sponsor to keep control, with new capital and optional liquidity for existing investors. As such, continuation investments are catalysing a fundamental reconfiguration of how value is generated and realised in buyout investing.
“In short, our analysis demonstrates that the rise of continuation investments is not simply a stopgap, or a passing trend – they are a disruptive force reshaping the architecture of private equity. With continued growth, we expect to see greater investment innovation in the space to support increasing investor demand.”
Explosive growth to continue: market to more than triple in size from 2025 record
The continuation investment market’s recent growth trajectory shows no sign of slowing. Based on Schroders Capital’s conservative projections – rooted in increasing market penetration of continuation investments, growth in broader private equity net asset value, and anticipated overall recovery in private equity distributions – they forecast a more than threefold expansion in continuation investments over the next decade, compared to 2025’s already above-forecast record total.
Specifically, in base case forecasts, Schroders Capital expects total continuation investment volumes to increase from around $109 billion in 2025 to more than $330 billion by 2035.
There are five key structural factors Schroders Capital believes are driving the growth of this segment, reflecting a combination of long-term market evolution and short-term dynamics:
1. Continued private equity ownership beyond the original holding period is an established way to drive company transformation
2. Ongoing company transformation under private equity ownership often does not require a change in owner
3. Continuation investments are a cost-effective way to deliver ongoing transformation
4. Continuation investments have more predictable returns and faster liquidity compared to traditional buyouts
5. The current cyclical exit gap is accelerating demand for alternative liquidity solutions
Disrupting the buyout model
The concept of businesses remaining in the private equity ecosystem after their original holding period is not new. Sponsor-to-sponsor buyouts, where one fund manager sells a portfolio company to another, have represented a significant share of exits for more than two decades, averaging 38% of deal count and 36% of deal value since 2006.
This deal flow is now partially displaced as continuation investments are often a better and cheaper alternative to continuing company transformation – where more assets are now remaining with the same fund manager, supported by a continuation vehicle and, typically, a new influx of capital. Alongside this, the growth path of top-quality companies is increasingly exceeding the 4-5 year standard investment lifecycle of private market funds under the same owner. This displacement of deal flow disrupts part of the buyout market, especially for mid and large buyouts.
Over the past two decades, those strategies have increasingly depended on sponsor-to-sponsor transactions as their primary deal source, representing more than half of their new transaction volumes in recent years, and between a quarter and third of new investments in 2025. Based on forecasts of continuation market growth, Schroders Capital’s new estimates indicate that close to 5% of all mid and large buyout deal flow could be displaced over the next 10 years, compared to where it would be otherwise.
Such a shift will have a significant impact on larger buyout managers and secondary firms. With a recent rise in dedicated continuation strategies, the market has seen maturation and increased fundraising – in turn providing an additional tailwind for transaction volumes in 2026 and beyond.
Why small/mid continuation investments are structurally more attractive
Schroders Capital believes the lower mid-market, covering continuation fund investments in small and mid-sized buyout portfolio companies (companies with enterprise values below $1 billion), are structurally more attractive.
Based on analysis of deal flow between 2022 and 2024, more than two-thirds of the potential continuation fund transactions evaluated by Schroders Capital involved companies with enterprise values below $750 million.
Petr Poldauf, Senior Investment Director, Schroders Capital, commented:
“While continuation funds are proliferating across the private equity spectrum, we believe the lower mid-market is particularly compelling. Several factors make the lower mid-market especially attractive: it offers a vast and diverse opportunity set, often with more favourable transaction economics and greater scope for transformational value creation. Importantly, it also tends to show greater resilience during periods of uncertainty, as many of the underlying businesses are more domestically focused and service-orientated, which can make them less exposed to the trade and geopolitical tensions driving renewed market volatility today.
“As the continuation investment market continues to mature, we’re seeing increased recognition of the potential benefits to fund managers, both existing and new investors, and new secondary buyers that we believe will continue to drive momentum.”
Schroders Capital provides investors with access to a broad range of private market investment opportunities, portfolio building blocks and customised private market strategies. Its team focuses on delivering best-in-class, risk-adjusted returns and executing investments through a combination of direct investment capabilities and broader solutions in all private market asset classes, through comingled funds and customised private market mandates.
The team aims to achieve sustainable returns through a rigorous approach and in alignment with a culture characterised by performance, collaboration and integrity.
With $111.8 billion (£83.1 billion; €95.2 billion)* assets under management, Schroders Capital offers a diversified range of investment strategies, including real estate, private equity, secondaries, venture capital, infrastructure, securitised products and asset-based finance, private debt, insurance-linked securities and BlueOrchard (Impact Specialists).
*Assets under management as at 31 December 2025 (including non-fee earning dry powder and in-house cross holdings)
Schroders plc
Schroders is a global investment manager which provides active asset management, wealth management and investment solutions, with £823.7 billion (€943.4 billion; $1107.9 billion) of assets under management at 31 December 2025. As a UK listed FTSE100 company, Schroders has a market capitalisation of circa £6.5 billion and over 5,400 employees across 38 locations. Established in 1804, Schroders remains true to its roots as a family-founded business. The Principal Shareholder Group continues to be a significant shareholder, holding approximately 44% of the issued share capital.
Schroders' success can be attributed to its diversified business model, spanning different asset classes, client types and geographies. The company offers innovative products and solutions through four core business divisions: Public Markets, Solutions, Wealth Management, and Schroders Capital, which focuses on private markets, including private equity, renewable infrastructure investing, private debt & credit alternatives, and real estate.
Schroders aims to provide excellent investment performance to clients through active management. This means directing capital towards resilient businesses with sustainable business models, consistently with the investment goals of its clients. Schroders serves a diverse client base that includes pension schemes, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations, high net worth individuals, family offices, as well as end clients through partnerships with distributors, financial advisers, and online platforms.
Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited. Registration No 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For regular updates by e-mail please register online at www.schroders.com for our alerting service.
The team aims to achieve sustainable returns through a rigorous approach and in alignment with a culture characterised by performance, collaboration and integrity.
With $111.8 billion (£83.1 billion; €95.2 billion)* assets under management, Schroders Capital offers a diversified range of investment strategies, including real estate, private equity, secondaries, venture capital, infrastructure, securitised products and asset-based finance, private debt, insurance-linked securities and BlueOrchard (Impact Specialists).
*Assets under management as at 31 December 2025 (including non-fee earning dry powder and in-house cross holdings)
Schroders plc
Schroders is a global investment manager which provides active asset management, wealth management and investment solutions, with £823.7 billion (€943.4 billion; $1107.9 billion) of assets under management at 31 December 2025. As a UK listed FTSE100 company, Schroders has a market capitalisation of circa £6.5 billion and over 5,400 employees across 38 locations. Established in 1804, Schroders remains true to its roots as a family-founded business. The Principal Shareholder Group continues to be a significant shareholder, holding approximately 44% of the issued share capital.
Schroders' success can be attributed to its diversified business model, spanning different asset classes, client types and geographies. The company offers innovative products and solutions through four core business divisions: Public Markets, Solutions, Wealth Management, and Schroders Capital, which focuses on private markets, including private equity, renewable infrastructure investing, private debt & credit alternatives, and real estate.
Schroders aims to provide excellent investment performance to clients through active management. This means directing capital towards resilient businesses with sustainable business models, consistently with the investment goals of its clients. Schroders serves a diverse client base that includes pension schemes, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations, high net worth individuals, family offices, as well as end clients through partnerships with distributors, financial advisers, and online platforms.
Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited. Registration No 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For regular updates by e-mail please register online at www.schroders.com for our alerting service.
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Fund manager
Schroders Greencoat LLP
London, United KingdomSchroders Greencoat is a specialist investment manager dedicated to renewable infrastructure, with over £8.5 billion under management. We aim to provide strong risk-adjusted returns for our investors, while also delivering positive environmental outcomes.
Founded in 2009, Schroders Greencoat has built a reputation for unwavering delivery of our investment propositions, as well as for innovation – our offerings have become the model for an entire industry sector. Our investments span the globe, with local expertise in the Europe, the UK and the US, and are managed across a range of publicly listed vehicles*, private market pooled funds, co-investment vehicles and Separate Managed Accounts.
Renewable infrastructure is a multi-trillion dollar global sector that will grow by more than $100 billion a year over the next decade. Utilities, energy companies and infrastructure developers will build out the majority of this transition, but the scale of capital involved will require significant private financing. There exists a very large and growing pool of capital which is keen to own and operate these assets, but lacks the inhouse technical skills and sector expertise to manage the investments independently. Our purpose is to bridge this gap, by acting as a solution provider for investors, and providing the partnership, financial, technical and operational expertise to deliver secure incomes for our clients.
Acquired by Schroders plc in 2022, Schroders Greencoat is the fourth pillar of the group's private markets investment business, Schroders Capital. Schroders Capital through Schroders Greencoat has the ambition to become a global leader in infrastructure and the alternative investment industry more broadly.
* Schroders Greencoat is the investment manager for two listed vehicles, Greencoat UK Wind PLC and Greencoat Renewables PLC.
infrastructure
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