Carlyle Releases Proprietary U.S. Economic Indicators to Fill Gap Left by Government Shutdown

Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) provides real-time insights into the U.S. economy using data from its 277 active portfolio companies, 694 real estate investments, and nearly 730,000 employees worldwide—a critical resource while government data releases are delayed due to the federal shutdown.

Data Provide Proxy for GDP, Consumer Spending, Inflation, Residential Construction, and Business Investment

WASHINGTON, DC – October 7, 2025 – Global investment firm Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) released proprietary U.S. economic indicators derived from its expansive global portfolio of 277 active companies, 694 real estate investments, and nearly 730,000 employees worldwide.

With the federal government shutdown halting the release of official data, including last week’s jobs report, Carlyle’s proprietary indicators provide one of the few real-time windows into the health of the U.S. economy.

"Corporate spending, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure, continues to power growth while household consumption ends the quarter on a high note. Combined, this suggests a U.S. economy growing faster than estimates of its long-term potential. With one of the largest private company data sets, Carlyle can provide timely insights that help investors and policymakers navigate these dynamics when official data is unavailable,” said Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at Carlyle.

Key Findings from Carlyle’s Indicators

Payrolls: Employers added 17,000 jobs in September.
GDP / Real Final Sales: Underlying U.S. economic growth is running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September.
Private Residential Construction: Real private construction spending declined 2.5% compared with year-ago levels.
Corporate Spending: Business investment rose 4.8% on a three-month moving average seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, led by technology and AI-related capital expenditures.
CPI Inflation: Energy: down 3.8%; Services less Shelter: up 3.3%; Durables: up 2.3%.

Carlyle’s proprietary indicators are based on operational data from its portfolio spanning technology, infrastructure, energy, healthcare, consumer, and industrial sectors. The breadth of this portfolio, representing nearly 730,000 employees, provides policymakers, investors, and the public with a uniquely comprehensive view of the economy.

Carlyle has calibrated KPIs across its portfolio to official series such as GDP, consumer spending, and inflation since 2011, allowing them to serve as timely proxies when government data is delayed or unavailable.

About Carlyle

Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) is a global investment firm with deep industry expertise that deploys private capital across three business segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. With $465 billion of assets under management as of June 30, 2025, Carlyle’s purpose is to invest wisely and create value on behalf of its investors, portfolio companies, and the communities in which we live and invest. Carlyle employs more than 2,300 people in 27 offices across four continents.

Media Contact

Brittany Bensaull
+1 (212) 813-4839
brittany.bensaull@carlyle.com

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Fund manager

Carlyle Group

Washington, DC, United States

Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) is a global investment firm with deep industry expertise that deploys private capital across three business segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Global Investment Solutions. With $441 billion of assets under management as of December 31, 2024, Carlyle’s purpose is to invest wisely and create value on behalf of its investors, portfolio companies, and the communities in which we live and invest. Carlyle employs more than 2,300 people in 29 offices across four continents.

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